Li-ion in its current form will be dead in 10yrs. Li-S and maybe even Na based tech or some hybrid tech combination will be dominating production (Not in use, in-time though). The energy densities will be anywhere from 2 to 3 fold current Li-ion outputs.
As a person who started their solar business in thermal and watched PV gobble the market, well, lets say I have a bit of a semi-unique perspective on the reasons thermal died (Sorry) and PV prevailed.
I could write a too long article on this diving into the weeds technically, personally connected, and financially. But to cut to the chase here, its about the money. PV can be accurately monitored, stored and used/replaced at a distance, easily, with relatively low loss compared to thermal. The power produced can ALWAYS be used somewhere and that flow can be "billed" by somebody, making for 100% power tracking and associated revenue. Now, in high population density cities with district heating systems, can a solution be had and charges be made for thermal? Sure. Just like they do with the selling and disposal of water. Both happen through pipes, though losses with thermal not water. But local thermal, much like off-grid PV, can only produce as much as its used, and as the temp rises in the thermal storage, piping and collectors, the losses rise dramatically, even with Evacs, though less than flat plates. This fact is in reality the reason HP extracted thermal storage (Cool compared) is far more efficient (On the solar side) than non HP. However, HP requires much more electrical energy than pumped liquid solar thermal. Even with a good HP COP of 4 to 5, solar liquid thermal can have COP's up to 100. Night and day comparison. My GSHP is a 2-1/2 ton unit running on 240VAC at about 10 amps total, including loop pump circs (My HP is actually a SAHP, approx. 100,000 BTU max ground heating per day). A solar thermal liquid system collecting the same BTU''s approx. uquiv., may in its single circ. pump use 150 watts at 120VAC, less or equal to a typical fridge.
And the harsh reality in a Capitalist structure is, when money is being saved, profit is not being made. The American economy is 2/3 consumer spending. Look what happens when the masses by the numbers, decide to cut back a little. The DOW plunges, a recession or worse (COVID ring any bells) and the whole world ceases to function. We designed such a great system didn't we.
And don't get me wrong here. I LOVE SOLAR THERMAL!! for even just the engineering reasons alone. But as I have said before with little subtlety, currency is our god, not BTU's.
Original Message:
Sent: 04-04-2023 08:47 PM
From: M Keith Sharp
Subject: grid and battery needs
The comments so far have been more optimistic about battery technology than I am. Lithium-ion has low energy density, is expensive (monetarily and environmentally), doesn't last very long and can fail catastrophically. That is the reason that research is still going on for alternatives, including high-temperature thermal storage, flow batteries, metal-air batteries, compressed gas storage and even lifting large weights. We may solve the controlled nuclear fusion problem before we have cheap, durable batteries with high energy density.
Two trillion dollars has been forwarded as the cost of the necessary battery storage, but lithium-ion can last as little as 1000 cycles (about three years). $2T every three years is a lot of money. It makes ambient-conditioned buildings seem like a good deal. If all ~100 million of the new buildings added by 2050 cost 1% more to make them 100% conditioned by ambient energy (like Jim Riggins' house) and they cost on average $500k, the incremental cost would be $500 billion. The energy and storage savings would last 30 years, if not longer. Batteries would be $20T over the same period, not to mention the generation and distribution costs.
Space conditioning is not the entire energy demand, but it is a large chunk of it. It is often said that energy conservation is cheaper than energy production. It seems that a corollary is that managing ambient energy for space conditioning is also cheaper.
------------------------------
M Keith Sharp
Emeritus Professor
Louisville KY
Original Message:
Sent: 03-31-2023 01:11 PM
From: william fitch
Subject: grid and battery needs
Hi: Yes. Regarding the engineering... to be more specific, I think it is more of a quantitative problem than a theoretical breakthrough required. Starting a down grid!! No fun. Hard. I don't that it will ever be easy. Inertia in any system, electrical or mechanical, is a blessing and a curse. There are times when it helps you and times when its hurts. Solutions to their freq problem in a "lighter" world may grow and be found out on micro-grids, and resolve the big quantity problem by mere multiplication of the solution.
Regarding your last, that's the unseen requirements of being off-grid which is often "fantasized" about when various parties are saying, "screw the power companies, stick it to the man, etc.." The grass always tends to look greener on the other side of the fence...
Interesting times.
------------------------------
william fitch
Owner
www.WeAreSolar.com
Original Message:
Sent: 03-31-2023 12:50 PM
From: Elias OUEDRAOGO
Subject: grid and battery needs
The engineering... i don't know what to say.
In theory, it looks simple, not rocket science. However in practice coordinating thousands or millions of batteries and loads in REAL TIME, without the heavy inertia of thermal/hydro power plants to set the frequency may be easier said than done. How quick is it to restart the grid in a complete blackout?
At the residential or microgrid level, I am more confident storages and loads control can be integrated easily. VPP is still in the early stage and manages limited loads/generations so wait and see! Tesla for example started to implement virtual inertia with their mega-batteries. Is it something that can be done cost-effectively on smaller EV batteries or home batteries?
yes I agree that commercial,industrial-scale projects can be managed more professionally and economically.
Electricity is a high grade energy easily converted to other forms of energy. I don't have experience with heat processes above 200C, however as I read, most concentrated solar thermal companies that tried to get into high temperature industrial heat process business or steam power generation business are struggling a lot to compete with PV.
Even at medium temperatures, collecting solar heat more efficiently at low temperatures and using an electric heat pump to make the temperature lift can be more economical than building directly a collector for the target temperature.
For simple water/space heating, sure solar thermal is efficient enough, for the leaking stuff that is a real problem that is not often put into the calculation for home projects! self-maintenance, non-budgeted repairs...that seems to be the norm!
------------------------------
Elias OUEDRAOGO
Business Developer
Future Energy Company
Original Message:
Sent: 03-31-2023 10:33 AM
From: william fitch
Subject: grid and battery needs
I like the graph. Sums it up nicely on the cost end.
"Storage question is essential for the energy transition so both the pro-clean energy and con-clean energy interpret it in a way that favors their position!"
Of course. But if you ignore the cost and just look at the engineering, there no longer are two sides are there. The engineering really is not that hard and its associated answer. But of course, the road blocks put in the way of the solution is the real problem.
I think thermal storage has an easier time on the commercial and industrial scale because you have "labor" on-site to deal with issues as they arise (O&M), which a residential level does not have. Solar thermal with water storage can be a pain in the butt when COMPARED to PV with no leaks or moving parts, thus allot of its appeal. Plus, thermal generation has temp as its top non-converted energy use, where as elect has more or less limitless temp potential. Goes to higher use value from an engineering aspect.
Solar thermal has one advantage over PV, at least at this point, is a 4 fold increase in efficiency, and gains efficiency in hot climates, the opposite of PV. One of the reasons that I actually like hot air solar thermal is the whole leak thing becomes non-destructive. You get a leak in a pipe or pump carrying "whatever" fluid and its a big problem. An air leak, not so much.... But, thermal transfer rates become harder, etc..
But PV has a much lower zero base line.... Yin...Yang...
And the beat goes on......
------------------------------
william fitch
Owner
www.WeAreSolar.com
Original Message:
Sent: 03-31-2023 08:54 AM
From: Elias OUEDRAOGO
Subject: grid and battery needs
Hi,
Storage question is essential for the energy transition so both the pro-clean energy and con-clean energy interpret it in a way that favors their position!
Utility companies are worried about the uncertainties of their role in future decentralized power systems. Once the storage issue is solved to a point where it is cheap as solar/wind power generation, transmission lines, giga power plants may lose their relevance quickly, or at least their share of the business will be reduced.
It is clear that the storage question is not well understood yet by many stakeholders of the energy business,
-
What storage capacity is needed nationwide
-
How EV batteries will interact with the grid, where they will be at any time, having energy is one thing, routing it properly is another thing.
-
Will EV batteries commit to connect to the grid at specific time or randomly connect-disconnect, how VPP will be managed at large scale
-
How to monetize distributed storage-only investment besides energy arbitration
-
What happens to the central grid if energy exchange with micro-grids drops dramatically, who pays for main grid maintenance, is the grid even needed
Concerning the storage size requirement I found an interesting report on this platform about "Firm power generation". The report claims that overbuilding solar PV capacity and curtailing the production on purpose is much cheaper than trying to capture 100% of production with a huge storage.
What if thermal storage becomes widespread, what if some economic activities can be displaced to coincide with solar/wind power generation, what if power to ammonia for example can be done seasonally only….the electric energy storage size may not be as big as thought.
For battery, i am also confident that the learning curve will be much faster than solar PV, given the urgency of climate issues and people's need for reliable, secure, stable price energy worldwide.
report link
------------------------------
Elias OUEDRAOGO
Business Developer
Future Energy Company
Original Message:
Sent: 03-29-2023 06:45 AM
From: Joe Schiller
Subject: grid and battery needs
Thomas and David:
You both make excellent points about the grid and energy needs for electrification. One thing to keep in mind is that these two needs are not necessarily additive, but to a very significant extent, congruent. This is because while EVs do represent a significant new load for the grid, they also provide much of the additional needed storage Thomas described. Further, as David pointed out, EVs often serve as a catalyst for homeowners to install solar panels. A significant portion of these homeowners may also install additional storage. The continued development of virtual power plant (VPP) and microgrids will accelerate these trends.
I feel that the concerns originating from the legacy utilities about grid adequacy and needed additional renewables and storage deployments are given too much credence. Yes, they are formidable, and it is not that their concerns have no basis, but that these concerns are often exaggerated because they assume these legacy utilities will do all the heavy lifting. If the solar community had waited on the utilities to address all their concerns in the past, we would have much less installed solar and storage today. It has taken decades of effort, in the form of research, advocacy, and deployment, by the solar community to push utilities to where we are today, and we are going to have to keep pushing. The path forward will be much easier and faster than the one we travelled to date because past efforts have brought us technology advances that make solar the cheapest and fastest growing energy source. Battery storage is now following the same technological-economic trajectory. New efficiency, tariff structures, VPP, and microgrid technology advances will compliment and accelerate the transition to electrification.
Joe Schiller
------------------------------
Joe Schiller
Professor, emeritus
Tennessee Solar Energy Association
Clarksville
------------------------------