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Off- Grid Solar Projections

  • 1.  Off- Grid Solar Projections

    Silver
    Contributor
    Posted 05-09-2024 03:57 PM
    Edited by Timothy Mcbride 05-12-2024 08:17 AM

    Solar radiation intensity is approximately 1380 watts per square meter (W/m2) above the Earth's atmosphere, which is known as the Solar Constant. 20 % of 1380 watts is 276 watts being converted  potentially into electricity for use with above average photovoltaic modules on clear sunny days. Average roof size in America is roughly 1700 square feet which equals 158 square meters which means the average home could be totally off the grid with current solar technology utilizing solar electricity without the transmission loss otherwise from solar farms as millions of homes are already doing this worldwide. As this trend continues into the future no other form of electrical generation will be needed for homes other than the light from the sun. ( In ideal conditions, highly efficient futuristic solar panels could produce  up to 1,000 watts per square meter. However, in real-world conditions,  currently they usually only produce 200 to 300 watts per square meter on average. )



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    Timothy Mcbride
    CEOOwner
    Sol-Era R & D
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  • 2.  RE: Off- Grid Solar Projections

    Silver
    Contributor
    Posted 05-10-2024 11:06 AM

    Huh?

    AS noted, the solar constant is ABOVE the atmosphere, so unless you know of some housing in outer space, 20% of STC (1000W) is 200 watts, not 200+ anything.

    "( In ideal conditions, high efficient solar panels can produce around 1,000 watts per square meter. ...."

    Ah, no. This is emphatically wrong. Even the best multi-junction cells in outer space can not achieve those outputs (1000W/sqm), under 1 sun intensity. A 50% efficient multi junction cell (does not exist, yet) in outer space, would only achieve 50% of 1380W = 690W. Here on earth the theoretical max for single junction cells is around 34%. (340W per 1000W at STC).

    "As of 2024 the best lab examples of traditional crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar cells had efficiencies up to 27.1%, while lab examples of multi-junction cells have demonstrated performance over 46% under concentrated sunlight."

    Most solar panels in production average today, around 22-24% efficient under STC.... give or take.... 10 years from now, if we get lucky with Perovskite and other variations included, maybe we hit 30%... fingers crossed...

    I appreciate your enthusiasm, but we must endeavor to be more precise with technical offerings for many reasons...

    As a side note, being able to be off-grid is a balance between gross KW output, storage and solar consistency. Climates with large seasonal variance in solar output and ambient temps, makes this challenge harder and harder.... To achieve off grid in these more challenging locations, "Super Insulation" and "Passive solar" (By what ever names you like) almost by necessity must also be in the equation.

    It is now doable but not easy depending on location, etc...



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    william fitch
    Owner
    www.WeAreSolar.com
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  • 3.  RE: Off- Grid Solar Projections

    Silver
    Contributor
    Posted 05-10-2024 04:04 PM
    Edited by Timothy Mcbride 05-12-2024 06:28 AM

    These are projections towards a future in solar power that is possible as to any discrepancies within calculations will always lean towards grander efficiency within the whole solar system at large over time as new innovation and invention come online.  The simplicity of solar installation will only become more easier over time until DIY is commonplace. Also as plug and play solar technology advances along with appliance, and electronic efficiency.  Going solar will become a no brainer to a future generation of crafty enthusiast of shared knowledge as already is becoming the norms with instructional,  Youtube type videos.   The energy is there as the  solar constant process, ( We like using the actual solar constant in calculations as states a more accurate account of availability exponentially in the future as atmospheres clear, and accounting for balloon, low orbit, astronomical, or advances earthbound otherwise )  and as you suggest Bill space based solar is on the rise.   Think !  Future by using how far we have already advanced in such a short time as the yard stick as even now the EVs are becoming an additional storage medium for homes. 

    https://www.nasa.gov/organizations/otps/space-based-solar-power-report/


    Bill as an example this PV panel is approximately 1 square meter 43.7" × 39.1" Inches excluding the frames very close.The specs on this panel is 200 watts with an efficiency rating of 20.60 %

    https://www.redarcelectronics.com/us/200w-monocrystalline-solar-panel?

    The objective of this project is to develop, test, and validate a complete Plug and Play PV prototype system. 

    https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/plug-and-play-solar-pv-american-homes

    Expect Breakthroughs !  

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    Timothy Mcbride
    CEOOwner
    Sol-Era R & D
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  • 4.  RE: Off- Grid Solar Projections

    Silver
    Contributor
    Posted 05-10-2024 06:41 PM

    Examples of panels...lol... OK Tim. I seem to remember I have a couple of them lying around somewhere...

    Projections like that are on par with Fusion around the corner..... Yes, its coming....

    All that I am suggesting is that you keep it "real", because there are people who are not as nice as me who would be more than happy to take statements like yours, and beat the crap out of RE proponents.... happens ALL THE TIME....



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    william fitch
    Owner
    www.WeAreSolar.com
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  • 5.  RE: Off- Grid Solar Projections

    Silver
    Contributor
    Posted 05-10-2024 06:57 PM
    Edited by Timothy Mcbride 05-12-2024 08:05 AM

    "Real ?"  Tell " Real "  to your great great Grandfather.  Then tell " Real " to your children's children's Children.  Things are changing so fast right now that one person's real is another person's nightmare just like one person's trash is another person's treasure.  Nothing about the future is " Real "  it hasn't happened yet.  Reality is relative just like time and each and every human being has a reality, just as each person has time, as my time, and your time implies.  We say,  " Thank you for your time "  all the time.   In my world things improve all the time because we make it so. I hope within your world things are improving as well.  Take time to make a difference.  Some folks are still in the  Matrix,  totally unaware not a  clue !  Until something jars their cage.  An empty wagon rattles the most while still waters run deep.  Read between the lines between the times.  Imagine Reality Anew!

    The Truth is Out There 

    With perovskite solar cells, it is possible for solar energy systems to reach 50% efficiency. For now, 47.1% is the confirmed efficiency rate in laboratory conditions as researchers continue to find ways to translate that efficiency to the average rooftop solar array.

    https://sistinesolar.com/solar-panel-efficiency-improvements/

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    Timothy Mcbride
    CEOOwner
    Sol-Era R & D
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  • 6.  RE: Off- Grid Solar Projections

    Posted 05-10-2024 10:25 PM

    I admire your enthusiasm, but it is important to convey accurate information if we want to encourage more people to invest in solar. The generally accepted max solar irradiance value in bright sun, and normal to a surface on earth is 1000 W/m^2.

    Typical high efficiency solar modules today have about 22% efficiency, so they can produce about 220 W/m^2 of power under those conditions. The daily average of equivalent "standard sun hours" ((hours of 1000 W/m^2 power density) varies in the US based on sun vs cloud cover, and latitude, and elevation, and can range from about 4 to 5.8 hrs, or equivalently, 4 to 5.8 kWh/m^2/day.

    As far as roof cover, you can't really cover 100% of a roof with solar modules.  20% to maybe 40% is probably the typical range for residential roofs in most locations. For homes in the extreme south and for commercial it can be higher depending on roof geometry. In most locations, there are min distances from roof edges and some roof surfaces that face too far north are unsuitable.\

    And, as far as solar becoming mainstream DIY any time soon, I doubt most people will have the skills needed to work on a roof safely, building a solar power plant with DC voltages up to 600v for residential and 1000V for commercial, and connect it to 240V AC or higher services, all while making sure all the wiring methods meet local and national code standards. DIYers can theoretically design and install an HVAC system in their home too, but in reality, how many do?



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    Ken Nadsady
    AviSun Renewable Energy
    Hudson OH
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  • 7.  RE: Off- Grid Solar Projections

    Silver
    Contributor
    Posted 05-11-2024 03:54 AM
    Edited by Timothy Mcbride 05-12-2024 08:23 AM

    Ken , According to Statista, shipments of room air conditioners in the United States generally range from  3.5 to 6 million units per year, peaking in 2021 at 6.28 million. For example, in 2018, 8.18 million units were shipped. As homes become smaller and more efficient so called window units, and ductless mini-split heat pumps are becoming more commonplace.   Also EV's in the future are becoming the battery backup. Factories are becoming automated and self powered with solar.   The exodus from large very expensive homes has already begun. Yes, in the future everyone will have, "  Skills " similar how the Amish collectively accomplish feats together as a community as most human beings will simply work from home yet networking within cottage industries, community gardens, and or home offices, and yes micro-grid solar will power it all. The lines between commercial and residential are already blurred and soon will merge as a single entity.  Doesn't take a lot of skill to plug in an electric vehicle to a home or plug a solar panel into a socket as that will be how simple these systems will become as all inverters and controller components will become AI smart integrated into the modules themselves as systems become smaller and power ready and soon maybe even altogether conductive/Wifi wireless.  Also consider that in the future we may actually get a handle on this climate thing,  as the atmosphere begins to clear the pristine light from the sun will contain more energy at all geographical locations henceforth.   Also  Ken, " Invest in solar" implies that our current monetary system will have something to do with common sense collective solar enterprise in the future when current monetary systems are a major part of the pollution problem on this planet. This debt driven greedy system is a series of booms and bust and now is upwards 35 trillions of dollars in the negative just in one sector alone,  government. Expect a huge crash soon of this usury, unsustainable, unrealible, horribly corrupted, polluted system,  yet will ultimately be replaced with sun based debtless currency that will never be resource scarce or crash ever again. 

    Photovoltaic Money



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    Timothy Mcbride
    CEOOwner
    Sol-Era R & D
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  • 8.  RE: Off- Grid Solar Projections

    Silver
    Contributor
    Posted 05-11-2024 07:13 AM

    "DIYers can theoretically design and install an HVAC system in their home too, but in reality, how many do?"

    I did. Designed and installed my own Geo-thermal, and frankly everything else.

    ...lol...

    But to be fair to the truth of your comment, I suppose I am not practically speaking, a DIY'er...

    Much like "Divergents" in "Divergent", I am kind of category less....

    Have a great sunny day....

    Taking a jump, to SPACE WEATHER, for those not in touch with our friend 98 million miles away. Take note, this is somewhat unusual at this level, and persistent. Following 2 messages!!

    Space Weather Message Code: WARK07
    Serial Number: 105
    Issue Time: 2024 May 11 1120 UTC
    
    EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
    Extension to Serial Number: 104
    Valid From: 2024 May 10 1715 UTC
    Now Valid Until: 2024 May 11 2359 UTC
    Warning Condition: Persistence
    
    NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
    www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
    
    Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
    Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
    Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
    Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
    Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
    Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Space Weather Message Code: WATA50 Serial Number: 76 Issue Time: 2024 May 11 1120 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: May 11: G4 (Severe) May 12: G3 (Strong) May 13: G3 (Strong) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices. Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur. Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.


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    william fitch
    Owner
    www.WeAreSolar.com
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  • 9.  RE: Off- Grid Solar Projections

    Silver
    Contributor
    Posted 05-11-2024 07:36 AM


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    Timothy Mcbride
    CEOOwner
    Sol-Era R & D
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  • 10.  RE: Off- Grid Solar Projections

    Silver
    Contributor
    Posted 05-11-2024 07:59 AM

    Good Vid.



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    william fitch
    Owner
    www.WeAreSolar.com
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  • 11.  RE: Off- Grid Solar Projections

    Silver
    Contributor
    Posted 05-11-2024 07:17 AM

    Yes, I enjoyed the X-files to...   spooky...



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    william fitch
    Owner
    www.WeAreSolar.com
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  • 12.  RE: Off- Grid Solar Projections

    Silver
    Contributor
    Posted 05-11-2024 08:03 AM
    Edited by Timothy Mcbride 05-11-2024 09:26 AM

    " Yes, I enjoyed the X-files to...   spooky..." 

    Bill you may like this then, 

    TRANSCRIPT: DAVID DUCHOVNY (AKA-  Fox Mulder  X-files ) Talks about the climate crisis and renewable energy.  

     

    Why or how did you start coming into thinking about renewable energy? Was it just the sort of mass conversation happening around it?
     Fox - " Don't remember how, exactly. It was really through that archaic term "pollution" that we used to talk about, and the idea… Just realizing at some point, and having children, that this was going to be the earth that they inherited. It was more of a clean-up prospect when I started it. Like, "Let's keep it clean. Let's leave it the way we found it."



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    Timothy Mcbride
    CEOOwner
    Sol-Era R & D
    ------------------------------