Sure, 10w/m*2 is problaby a good place to start, although better yet would be to model the building and shoot for some percentage of self powering--passive or otherwise. I still think passive is best, but I happen to live in one of the climates where there is a long period that there is almost no solar for a pretty long time, so heat pump+renewable power source is required here. Otherwise I'm passive 6-8 months of the year, ignoring the recent trend for a string of "super" hot (for here anyhow) days where I use a room AC unit to cool only part of the house. Ironically these heat waves are pushing people here to convert their gas heat to a heat pump so they can have AC also.
I've never paid close attention to my heat swings, but I think I'm also around 4F or less most days. At one point, I had a setback thermostat and it did nothing because I'd set the heat to come on after 5F and that rarely happened. The house I built in CA swings a bit more, but I think it's because it doesn't have quite enough insulation and it has mediocre windows (anderson 100s), but the swing still isn't more than 6F. The biggest swings are also January when it gets a lot of gain, but the nights are cold (ok, not that cold: 30s).
I'm skeptical of changing many minds, but let's hope I'm wrong, or at least that the younger generations start taking it more seriously. Too much emphasis on stuff, money, success etc in this country... which seems to be the main reason people buy oversized houses with trendy stuff in them-- all of which will probably end up in the landfill, making their impact higher than is obvious. There are so many things that seem wrong about how we build and the culture that drives that.
Original Message:
Sent: 06-03-2024 07:51 AM
From: M Keith Sharp
Subject: What policy topics do you think Solar Today should cover this fall?
Bob,
I like the max heating/cooling load limit. The original Passive House limit of 10 W/m^2 is a nice round number, and allows ~100% ambient conditioning in many climates with south glass of 5-10% of the floor area and a reasonable amount of thermal mass. The thermos bottle just needs a few south windows and some mass inside.
The large temperature swings of classic passive solar buildings are a result of the design. Interesting about the large earthship swings. It makes sense. Large solar gains contribute to high temperature during the day, then large envelope losses cause low temperature at night. With smaller solar gains and smaller losses, swings can be decreased. Your comment motivated me to calculate the swings in my house (see plot). These are the maximum minus the minimum temperature for each 24 hr period during 2022. The swings over 4 F were all during early Jan as the house was warming up after an unusually long storm during the holidays. The house was also unoccupied during the holidays, so a worst-case scenario.
A new program of outreach and education would change some minds, but you are right, some are not interested. That is why I think we need codes that promote ambient buildings. Heard through the grapevine that Massachusetts is considering adopting a Passive House-like building code. It is a good first step.

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M Keith Sharp
Emeritus Professor
Louisville KY
Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2024 05:42 PM
From: Bob Scheulen
Subject: What policy topics do you think Solar Today should cover this fall?
I agree storage is key--at least in terms of technical problems. The rest of the problem is cultural/political---ie what we will actually choose to do. Building codes help, but they often turn political, resulting in something that doesn't make anyone happy. I'd rather see code go to a max heat loss at some standard design conditions (probably varying by climate zone) than the current prescriptive codes, but then I've seen passivehouse certified buildings (ie not really prescriptive) that are only passive in the sense that they highly engineered thermos bottles that really ignore passive solar. If you want a passive solar building you have to think in those terms and accept a larger daily temperature fluctuation than most people are accustomed to (even though my experience is that it's still typically only 6F.. although I stayed in an earthship for a few days once...the temperature varied about 20F one day...although would probably be less than half that with decent glass and better insulation.).
But besides building operation, there is still the transportation sector, and consumption of goods and services, and increasingly also energy sucking computers... not to mention the embodied energy in construction, where sadly most buildings don't last 100+ years, and a building industry that has never been very forward looking. The technical problem is hard enough, but the people problems seems harder.
If i had my way, I'd live in some little community where cars are all out on the periphery and hardly used and most everything I needed I could get by walking, biking or public transit, much of my food was local, and most everything I owned was both durable and repairable. Having local energy production meet most of my needs is just part of that picture. Even ignoring climate change, and all the other problems with fossil fuels, this still seems like the best way to live (to me anyhow). Obvious in addition to having to completely change the built environment, this means PV/wind/etc, local storage and some transmission line capacity. While I suspect many ASES members would have similar dreams, the general population doesn't seem to share our desires.
Information helps, building codes will help, technical breakthrus in storage will help, but I still think this is fundamentally a people problem
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Bob Scheulen
Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2024 01:23 PM
From: M Keith Sharp
Subject: What policy topics do you think Solar Today should cover this fall?
Bob,
I agree with most of what you say. The main issue is "cheap batteries." Batteries are not the whole picture. The latest estimates for a 100% renewable grid are $8 - $21 trillion, which includes the other important pieces, namely renewable generation, transmission lines and utility-scale storage. The fraction of this needed just for heating and cooling translates to $14K to $50K per building in the US. Most new and lots of existing buildings could be conditioned with ambient energy for less.
We need a national program to increase awareness and easy-to-use software tools for designing ambient buildings. Improved building codes would make a big difference. Below is an incomplete plot of the progression of IECC minimum wall R-vale for climate zone 5 as an example. Another step to R-45 would a level at which many buildings could be near 100% ambient conditioned if the rest of the components were designed well, including the right windows, air-sealing and thermal mass.

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M Keith Sharp
Emeritus Professor
Louisville KY
Original Message:
Sent: 05-29-2024 10:18 AM
From: Bob Scheulen
Subject: What policy topics do you think Solar Today should cover this fall?
You can definitely retrofit insulation, but in our current economic model, the payback period is very long since the cost is usually high... ie you typically have to rip off the siding, tear out windows and doors, add insulation and any necessary support structure, then put it all back. That said, I agree, long term, it's still the way to go. it makes the most sense to do it when you're already doing a major remodel--in fact it's tragic that major remodels happen without adding significant insulation. It's also tragic that it's hard to find good windows.
Riding my bike around Seattle (where I live) I see older homes getting torn down all the time and replaced with... well, built to current energy code (ie mediocre insulation) and windows randomly pointing everywhere (and often too large). It's always 10 (or 100) of those for every one built that actually has good insulation... I suspect that's the case all over the country. Plus most urban areas were laid out with complete disregard to solar access.
To me, it's a question of how to get people to change their mindset, but given that we're not a culture that thinks particularly long term, I don't see this happening anytime soon. Super-insulated, passive building are an investment in the future. That said, there is a contingent that argues that cheap ubiquitous storage (batteries or whatever) is a more straightforward solution. Still, it's a lot easier if buildings all took a passive approach.
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Bob Scheulen
Original Message:
Sent: 05-28-2024 08:28 AM
From: M Keith Sharp
Subject: What policy topics do you think Solar Today should cover this fall?
Hopefully, I have made my point that, even though it can be challenging for some existing buildings, ambient conditioning isn't just for new construction. My family have been builders for four generations that we know of. Maybe longer if we dug into ancestry. So I know a bit about remodeling.
Thumbs up for solar thermal hot water. So much better for our climate goals that heat pump water heaters.
We should remember that the ultimate goal is to eliminate fossil fuel combustion and carbon emissions. Unless you have storage, your PV is only powering heating and cooling for about 8 hours of a 24 hour day (when the sun is out). For the other two thirds of the day, your utility is burning fossil fuels (their PV doesn't work at night either) to send you electricity to heat/cool your house. Ambient conditioning can serve for the entire day because of its inherent thermal mass. It is built-in storage.
Another way to look at this is that when you are using PV for heating or cooling, you can't use it for appliances, EVs, etc. That means you need more PV to cover those loads that truly need electricity. Then when you are not heating or cooling, you have extra for which your utility may or may not pay you a fair price to feed into the grid. With ambient conditioning, you could power everything that requires electricity with 20-25% fewer PV panels, and worry less about net metering.
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M Keith Sharp
Emeritus Professor
Louisville KY
Original Message:
Sent: 05-27-2024 05:15 PM
From: william fitch
Subject: What policy topics do you think Solar Today should cover this fall?
I don't want to go long here. Just not in the mood.
But, I think you are underestimating the ease and cost of home remodeling. District heating, is an urban, high pop density available solution.
Myself, heating and cooling excluding DHW (I am 90% active solar there) is maybe 20-25% of all my loads. So PV (22MWH's a year) is an excellent solution. I could not drive my 25,000 EV miles a year on heat, for one....
Happy Memorial Day...
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william fitch
Owner
www.WeAreSolar.com
Original Message:
Sent: 05-27-2024 11:04 AM
From: M Keith Sharp
Subject: What policy topics do you think Solar Today should cover this fall?
Sorry for the delay in responding. Other commitments got in the way, including the ASES conference.
"it can only be implemented on new construction." Simply not true. Sure, there are some existing buildings for which using ambient conditioning would be challenging or essentially impossible. Lack of solar access may a deal killer for a particular building, but district heating is another option. There are also those for which ambient remodeling would be simple. Insulation is straight-forward to add in many cases. Similarly, windows are easy to upgrade and relocate. Adding thermal mass can be a challenge, but slab-on-grade houses already have a lot of mass, which may be a large fraction of that necessary to get to 100%. Air sealing typically amounts to a little caulking and a lot of labor. It can be done.
"Mother nature would be happier with the latter (renewable power)." As John McEnroe would say, "You can't be serious!" ;^) An ambient-conditioned building uses more insulation, but cellulose (recycled newspaper), arguably the best choice, has negative global warming potential by some measures. Such a building needs no extra windows (just windows in the right places), so that is a wash. Thermal mass, even with today's high carbon concrete, pays back in a few years. An ambient-conditioned building will last for decades for little maintenance and no need for replacement of critical components.
Compare that to the environmental cost of producing PV panels, wires and towers for distribution, and batteries for storage. PV performance degrades at about 1% per year and batteries have to be replaced after a few thousand cycles, causing even greater environmental cost.
It isn't even close. Mother Nature clearly favors ambient-conditioned buildings.
Agreed, capitalism is the crux in the US. However, capitalism can't work when there is so little awareness of other potential solutions. Heat pumps are widely promoted, but finding an architect/builder for an ambient building is hard, even if the consumer knows to look for one.
The ball, which was picking up speed, was buried in the 1980s. We need to get the ball rolling again. That is where policy comes in.
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M Keith Sharp
Emeritus Professor
Louisville KY
Original Message:
Sent: 05-01-2024 05:43 PM
From: william fitch
Subject: What policy topics do you think Solar Today should cover this fall?
The inherent problem with all of the above, or the challenge if you wish, is that really it can only be implemented on new construction. Well over 50% of the existing housing that is being used today, will be around way after 2050, even 2075. Changing over to RE as energy sources is simpler than changing the end user environment.
Even if possible, would you rather upgrade 100,000 home's to use less energy (FF based) or change one power plant from FF to RE powering those 100,000 homes? Mother nature would be happier with the latter. Its allot like choosing to stop burning FF creating CO2 in the air, than to try and take it back, after you already put it there. It is more efficient in a one to many relationship, to change the one, than the many.
That said, I love Super insulated construction and passive solar, when you can do it. Eliminate the loads, eliminate the energy and associated resources. Been around since the 70's and 80's, as noted...
Ultimately, that which gets chosen, makes the most money for Capitalism, which is why all those things have been around and went no where, by the numbers.
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william fitch
Owner
www.WeAreSolar.com
Original Message:
Sent: 04-02-2024 06:48 AM
From: M Keith Sharp
Subject: What policy topics do you think Solar Today should cover this fall?
Kat,
Buildings account for nearly half of US energy use and a large fraction of greenhouse gas emissions. There are tremendous opportunities for reducing the impact of buildings by adopting policies that promote the use of ambient energy for a wide range of applications, including heating, cooling, hot water, daylighting, ventilation, cooking and clothes drying.
A few facts that could be expanded upon in articles for Solar Today:
- Electrification and energy efficiency for buildings will not solve the problem, because it is projected that utility electricity will still be 44% from fossil fuel by 2050. Net zero buildings are not enough, because at night when PV is not producing, the building is using electricity made from fossil fuels. The building problem will get worse with the expected doubling of built floor area by 2060.
- Estimates for an all-renewable grid range from 8 to 21 trillion dollars (and even higher). The fraction of that cost just to heat and cool buildings amounts to 14,000 to 50,000 dollars per building. In many cases, ambient energy can accomplish this task for a lot less.
- Ambient-conditioned buildings are more resilient to power outages, which can be expected to become more frequent as storms become more severe. Where conventional buildings reach uncomfortable and even dangerous temperatures quickly when the power goes out, ambient-conditioned buildings can stay comfortable for days and livable indefinitely.
- The Department of Energy has no upper level offices devoted to buildings and, in fact, only 7% of its budget is spent on buildings. With the large contribution of buildings to our climate problems, they deserve greater attention.
- Codes and standards for buildings largely ignore ambient energy. Even worse, IECC 2021, the latest code used in many localities, essentially outlaws passive solar heating in climate zones 0-5, because windows with solar heat gain constant SHGC greater than 0.4 are prohibited.
- Courses on solar thermal applications are offered at fewer than about 10% of universities.
- Awareness of the potential of ambient energy is low among builders, realtors, architects, engineers and consumers.
- The National Renewable Energy Lab hosts PVWatts for designing photovoltaic systems, but similar, easy-to-use software for ambient-conditioned buildings is not available.
These problems are largely policy issues. Technology to construct buildings that can heat and cool themselves with ambient energy has been available for decades. New developments could make such performance easier to accomplish, but marketing and promotion through policy is arguably more important.
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M Keith Sharp
Emeritus Professor
Louisville KY
Original Message:
Sent: 03-29-2024 02:18 PM
From: Kat Friedrich
Subject: What policy topics do you think Solar Today should cover this fall?
We're getting ready to publish an issue of Solar Today this fall that will focus on renewable energy policies in the United States.
What are some impactful and important policies that you think we should cover? Would any of you be interested in pitching articles?
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Kat Friedrich
Editor in Chief
American Solar Energy Society
Monona WI
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