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World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

  • 1.  World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    Posted 12-24-2022 06:20 AM
    I will add this bit of serious trivia regarding our global condition for your consideration and year-end reflections.  The world population has reached 8 billion.  Only one decade ago in 2010 the population was 7 billion.  It is frightening to imagine where we will be in another decade or two?  Some say mankind's origins began 50 thousand years ago, some say 100 thousand, some argue 250 thousand years.  Take your pick - it matters not.  The real impact statistically and physically and socio-economically and politically is the fact that today, eight out of ten (80%) of all the humans that have lived on this planet since the beginning of mankind are alive today.  This is the harsh and unavoidable reality, "the inconvenient truth," we must face.  EVERY regional conflict, energy shortage, water emergency, mass refugee movement, failed state, pandemic, natural disaster, famine, etc. are magnified 100-fold directly by the pressures of overpopulation.

    In 1960 the population was at 3 billion.  In 1975 we reached 4 billion.  By most accounts this was a sustainable population, albeit the maximum, that could feed itself without consuming natural resources beyond the capacity to replenish those resources.  Natural balance was feasible.  Technology advancement is not the primary solution be it nuclear fusion or any combination of renewables' applications.  However, I do not diminish the technical applications referenced and detailed conversations within this forum.  I too want to be part of the solution.  And I realize preaching to this choir is slightly more than hearing the friendly echo.  But any discussion about a sustainable planet that does not include the realization of overpopulation is simply folly.  And until we elevate the thinking and perspective of Greta Thunberg over Elon Musk we do not have a chance.

    ------------------------------
    [Dennis] [Garde AIA, LEED AP]
    [OMTC, NEC Ankara, Turkey]
    [US Dept. of State / OBO]
    [Savannah] [GA]
    [Dennis.Garde@gmail.com]
    ------------------------------


  • 2.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    ASES Award Winner
    Posted 12-26-2022 06:54 PM
    Denis is exactly right -- we have never had some many people on this planet (over 8 billion
    this October) and the other issue is that over half of global population is now urbanized,
    which stresses global resources at higher and higher and higher levels.

    Now with the ice caps melting and coral reefs bleaching out .... and massive global forest
    fires .. are just compounding the global problems.

    The need to maximize and speed high value energy & water efficiency, renewables and 
    storage, and net-zero and zero energy buidlings, maunfacturing,and transportation is
    the only way around these threats. - Happy Holidays, Scott

    _____________________
     
    Scott Sklar
    President
    The Stella Group, Ltd.
    706 North Ivy Street, Arlington, VA 22201
    VA Phone:  703-522-1195 (3049 direct)
    E-mail:   solarsklar@aol.com
     
    The Stella Group, Ltd.. is a global strategic technology optimization owner's rep firm for clean energy users and companies, with a focus on system standardization, modularity and web-enabled diagnostics.  Scott Sklar is an Adjunct Professor at The George Washington University teaching three unique interdisciplinary sustainable energy courses, and an Affiliated Professor with CATIE, an international graduate university in Costa Rica offering graduate degrees on sustainability. Sklar is the Sustainable Energy Director at GWU's Environment and Energy Management Institute (EEMI).





  • 3.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    Posted 12-26-2022 07:04 PM
    I agree it's the main issue.  Alas it became a political hot potato, so we hardly ever hear about.

    ------------------------------
    Bob Scheulen
    ------------------------------



  • 4.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    Chapter Leader
    Posted 12-27-2022 11:03 AM
    Dennis -
          I agree the population has reached 8 billion humans ... I do not agree there is an 'inescapable' dilemma associated with the fact ! The evolution of humanity and the desire to 'grow our family', is not something we should take lightly ! The advances in technology as well as basic food production should offer the answers necessary for humanity to take care and support the rest of our 'masses' !  
          The real discussion may be 'why' do humans want to create more and more humans ... the answer may be our 'preoccupation' with the act of procreation ! "If it feels good ... Do It" ! ... someone once said ! We can look at the populations of the past ( ... 1960- 3 billion, 1975 - 4.5 billion ...), etc and take our view 'at the present time', without realizing the effects of 'profit motivation, greed and self-preservation', on the facts that are 'alarming' anyone concerning the human population !
          Of course, we as humans, can and should be realizing the methods to secure a future with many more humans to feed, cloth and house ! There are simple options to be realized for our continued expansion of our human population on Earth. The methods from the '60s and '70s are not sustainable for the feeding of humanity in the 21c. ! Neither are the 'accepted' methods of housing and clothing us all ! As the 'poor' populations in our world are suffering, the rich developed nations are expanding and disregarding those of 'lesser' substantial resources !
          All people on Earth are entitled to a 'fair share' of the resources available ... rather than the established focus of 'first come first served' ... in a 'for-profit' world we have developed ... for the rich establishment, and those 'established' corporate entities that exploit the resources for their profit (and for their shareholders) ! People have to take a look at how 'our' resources are being used (and misused), so we can realize the sharing mentality and the well-being of all humanity (and other life on Earth), as the population is not going to 'drop off', and people will continue to 'enjoy' making families, the world over !
         We can look at technologies that use less energy, and methods of growing and supplying sustenance for 'all humanity' ! In fact, we 'must' look for the sustainable technologies that will provide for an increasing human (and other) populations on Earth ! '"Go Solar ... Go Slower" !

    ------------------------------
    John Burke
    Director, MESEA, Maine
    Maine Solar Energy Association; Downeast Alternative Design Solar, Inc
    Jonesport ME
    ------------------------------



  • 5.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    Posted 12-28-2022 08:19 AM
    John,
    I don't think I get what you're saying.   I understand that humans have a desire to reproduce, but most people i know are plenty happy with two or fewer children and I know plenty of people with none.  Anyhow, even if humans did want to grow the population endlessly, it doesn't mean they should do it. People like to eat too much, eat junk food, drink too much, take drugs etc but no one argues they should do that as the long term consequences are not good.

    Renewable energy certainly is key to reaching sustainability, but a growing population just makes reaching sustainability all that much harder, particularly given that on order half the world would like raise their living standards which will entail more energy, and more resource extraction.  At some point you start running out of space, particularly if one feels any responsibility to leave plenty of space for other species.  Even if one doesn't feel such responsibility, we still need to consider that we depend on some of those species for ecosystem services, and that living on the brink of sustainability doesn't leave much room for resiliency--yet we're not even close to living sustainably at this point, so at the moment,  I just don't see how adding 100 million people every year isn't a problem.

    I had one child and will have no grandchildren, and am old enough that I'm not likely to see the worst of human's impact on the world's ecosystems, although I've seen enough of it already.  In some sense I shouldn't care, but I rather like nature,  and I hate to think of a time when young people can't wander an old growth forest, untrammeled desert, etc.  I cringe every time I read about someone wanting to cover the whole desert in solar panels.  it's not empty--things live there.  But even if you don't value those open spaces, I don't think most people want to live elbow to elbow with each other.  And even if you think they'd rather keep growing the population, do you not accept that the planet has some carrying capacity? If not I don't see how... its a finite space. All technology does is raise the capacity, but it doesn't address what stress dense living puts on people and whether doing so really makes them any happier. So my take is: given that the population has to stop growing at some point, why not now?

    In my cynical view, the real problem is that most humans have grown up in a fairly insecure way and hence tend to want things they don't really need.  If one starts looking at what really makes people happy, it turns out it's really only food, water, shelter and each other.  I suspect it also includes at least a little patch of the natural world.  I can't speak for other cultures, but Americans seem to not really know how to be happy and constantly mistake consumption for happiness.

    That's my perspective anyhow--probably many won't agree.  I'm old enough to know that changing someone's opinion is next to impossible.

    This is a bit of a tangent, but this discussion reminds me of the fundamental issue with the environmental movement in that most of it's messaging was about sacrifice.  Maybe your point is that people don't want to sacrifice, and I agree with that.  However, the mistake is in not recognizing that one can live sustainably without sacrifice, and in fact that one can live better. But I get that change is hard.  I'm sure my neighbors thought "there goes the nutcase" every time they'd see me walking in the rain to get groceries, but I don't do it just because it's eco-friendly, I do it because it brings me joy.

    To me the problem with population isn't that it's not a problem, it's that there is no practical way to convince the people who don't think it's a problem that it is.  People hate to be told what to do.   In my dream of a sustainable world, there is enough for everyone and every species and that people stop killing each other over resources and territory.   The only way I see to achieve that is to cap our population at whatever is not only sustainable, but leaves room for other species and for us to move when the climate changes.   I don't know what that number is, but I suspect that no matter what technology we come up with, the number is probably less than 8B.

    ------------------------------
    Bob Scheulen
    ------------------------------



  • 6.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    Posted 12-29-2022 03:10 PM
    Well said Bob.  Thanks for the perspective.

    ------------------------------
    Ken Nadsady
    AviSun Renewable Energy
    Hudson OH
    ------------------------------



  • 7.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    ASES Life Member
    Posted 12-29-2022 07:25 PM
    Re: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored.  Hello, I am Jim, a member of the ASES since , I think , 1980. I am a life member, and have supported what used to be called Zero Population Growth, but is now called, Population Connection. I also have been a member of the Sierra Club for over 30 years. I thoroughly enjoyed the depth of discussion and perspectives presented by Bob Scheulen and Dennis Garde. I must warn you however, that your concerns about overpopulation may now get you accused of being 'Eco-Fascists'. You will be accused of being racist against people of color and anti-immigrant. In the winter 2022 issue of the Sierra Club magazine, you can find an article by Ruxandra Guidi. In that article she stated that those who discuss population and carrying capacity are not environmentalists but "apocalyptic white nationalists". She claims that the book, The Population Bomb, by Paul and Anne Ehrlich blames poor nonwhites for ecologic disaster. I have that book and they discussed overpopulation but did not 'blame' nonwhites to be the only population of concern. As of May 21, 2022, the Sierra Club officially no longer links overpopulation to any environmental harmful effects.  Another young activist in the Sierra Club, Hop Hopkins has stated, "to be in the struggle for Black liberation, means coming to understand that climate justice is racial justice." He also said, "White people should go into white communities where the whites have created power for the express purpose of denying Blacks human dignity and self-determination."  In thinking of the human condition, I still cannot reconcile referring to people as white and black. In particular, it places a terrible burden on youngsters from mixed race couples. You may wonder, am I an Eco-Fascist?  My father was a dark skinned Italian immigrant, and he grew up in poverty as a child. I respect all individuals regardless of race and have voted primarily Democrat most of my life. I sent my children to public schools in North Carolina which were over 50% black, and recently participated in the Sacred Ground discussions through the Episcopal Church. During those discussions, I was told in no uncertain terms, that I look white and regardless of what I say, I am privileged and have racist (anti-black) thoughts. I personally do not think that is true, but those assumptions certainly put a barrier in my effectiveness when I voiced any disagreement.  I became interested in solar when mainstream solar was only solar thermal. You all are doing great work in helping to decrease our carbon footprint through solar energy. I am glad to see this discussion of the very pertinent, but contentious, issue of overpopulation. Until we can get the Catholics, Mormons, Amish, and all who continue to have huge families to understand our world as a 'finite space' that God is not enlarging, it remains an uphill battle. I did not want you to get ambushed by the Eco-Fascist label, hence my letter.  Thank you for this discussion and for the ASES.

    ------------------------------
    James Serene MD
    ------------------------------



  • 8.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    Posted 12-29-2022 10:20 PM
    James,
    I am acutely aware of the issue.  It's a bummer, but population got to be a political hot potato.  If someone wants to label me however they want,  I can't stop them,  but the reality is that I have no social agenda.  I don't even know how this idea of racism got attached to something that is just obvious logic.  The idea that population has a limit seems to trigger some kind of emotional fear in people, which I find a bit odd, since at the moment we are not in danger of running out humans.  The real issue is that humans get tribal and the whole thing turns into us versus them, yet clearly that's not what its about at all.

    I think many of us have refrained from saying anything due to the politics and name calling, but the fact that there is some limit to population hasn't changed, so I've decided to speak out at least once in a while.  I'm a bicycle riding, vegetarian who love ethnic food, speaks lousy Spanish and has almost no family, so let them attack me.

    I appreciate you bringing the issue up--its sort of the elephant in the room.  Among people who love nature, I suspect your and my stories are not that unusual...  The funny thing is that given opportunity and education there are apparently very few women who would choose to have particularly many children anyhow. The birth rate in most "developed" countries is already below replacement and its dropping worldwide.

    Anyhow, besides promoting renewable energy, there isn't much anyone can do besides change your own life and speak the truth.  My point was only about the math of trying to get to sustainable---its a daunting problem just to get the existing population all on a path to sustainability, without adding 100m people a year.  Especially since 3B+ humans are already not getting the resources they desire.  There are times when I worry its going to harder than we think.  We're heading in a good direction, but still the scale of the change required is massive.

    Ultimately I know I'm probably not going to change anyone's mind, but that doesn't mean I should stay silent.

    ------------------------------
    Bob Scheulen
    ------------------------------



  • 9.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    Chapter Leader
    Posted 12-30-2022 07:02 AM
    James -
         Thank you for your 'reasoned' response to the 'world population' thread ! I don't know if you read my comments, but I share some of yours and look forward to reasoned responses that will bring differences out of the shadows, and into the sensible dialogue ! Thank you

    ------------------------------
    John Burke
    Director, MESEA, Maine
    Maine Solar Energy Association; Downeast Alternative Design Solar, Inc
    Jonesport ME
    ------------------------------



  • 10.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    ASES Life Member
    Posted 12-30-2022 10:05 AM
    When I wrote my initial note, I was concerned that I was going out on a limb. I seem to be in a like minded group, since responses from Bob, John, and Thomas have been insightful and supportive. You have inspired me to write to the Sierra Club about the issue of overpopulation. My hope is that they will at least publicly consider, that keeping our population at sustainable levels, is not Eco-Fascism but rather sound policy for the good of all humans and other sentient beings. 





  • 11.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    ASES Life Member
    Posted 01-02-2023 11:01 AM

    Hello
     I want to share some history from the Sierra Club (SC) on the issue of taking on population limits as an agenda. Consider this as a cautionary tale . I am also a Life Member of ASES and Sierra Club and care deeply for both. The article in this month's Sierra Magazine that James Serene mentions  about how sincere environmentalists are now called out as eco-fascists if they talk about limiting population or immigration is the only the most recent example of a 30 year conflict within the SC on this issue. This nearly ruptured the Sierra Club in the 90s. Since someone living in US uses more energy and creates more waste than someone in a developing country, it seemed obvious that the greatest impact would come from limiting US population.  That is why in the 70s and 80s the SC supported US and world wide population limits. But in the 90s a different view point began to take hold and the SC waivered in their support. A splinter group group called Sierrans for US Population Stabilization (SUSPS) formed and elected members to the SC Board and tried to keep SC focused on limiting US population which included reducing immigration as well as birth rate and to stick with their past 2 decades of support for population stabilization (I was not a member of SUSPS).   Check out their website for history of this issue.

    SUSPS - Support US Population Stabilization - Support a Comprehensive Sierra Club Population Policy


    The SC membership was split on the issue with strong feelings on both sides by many SC leaders and members. In the 2000s the SC clarified their opposition to any policy  limiting population or immigration. Major donors threatened to cancel their funding of the club if they adopted population limits as a policy goal.  Opponents were called racist.  Many members and leaders supporting this left the SC.

    I wanted to point this out to help ASES avoid a similar divisive battle within our membership. Population growth and immigration is not core to our mission of promoting solar.  I strongly recommend dropping it to prevent unnecessary conflict and distraction from our main goals. I hope we can drop this topic from this discussion before it gets out of hand and that ASES does not take a position one way or the other.

    Respectfully
    Steve Hegedus



    ------------------------------
    Steven Hegedus
    Professor and Senior Scientist
    University of Delaware
    Newark Delaware
    ------------------------------



  • 12.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    Silver
    Contributor
    Posted 01-02-2023 12:45 PM
    Edited by william fitch 01-02-2023 08:51 PM
    Most likely good advice....

    Another after thought. Our entire currency based world (As I have strongly noted), is based on an ever forever expanding model. Note the word EXPANDING!!. Is it any wonder that the concept of fewer and fewer humans to consume, raises the ire of SO MANY!!. Nature's systems work in both quantitative directions equally well. Ours do not.

    ------------------------------
    william fitch
    Owner
    www.WeAreSolar.com
    ------------------------------



  • 13.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    ASES Award Winner
    Posted 01-02-2023 07:10 PM
    I want to go on-line to support Steve's guidance:

    "I wanted to point this out to help ASES avoid a similar divisive battle within our membership. Population growth and immigration is not core to our mission of promoting solar.  I strongly recommend dropping it to prevent unnecessary conflict and distraction from our main goals. I hope we can drop this topic."

    As a movement, we need to select issues that bind us, not divide us.

    We have many, many issues to confront on climate change, protecting fresh water, improving qualitative life for half the world's population, stabilitizing flora and fauna.

    I have been in the clean energy field for 45 years, and my thinking has always been to bridge the political divide, carefully select issues that bind us, and be open for many tactics, practises, laws & regs to help us get there.

    Thanks for the Sierra Club background. Appreciated.

    Happy New Year - Scott

    _____________________
     
    Scott Sklar, President, The Stella Group, Ltd., VA
    Phone:  703-522-3049 direct) E-mail:   solarsklar@aol.com
     
    Adjunct Professor & Sustainable Energy Director
    Environment & Energy Management Institute (EEMI)
    The George Washington University (GWU)
     
    _______________________





  • 14.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    ASES Life Member
    Posted 01-02-2023 09:09 PM
    I have read the responses by Steve Hegedus, William Fitch, and Scott Sklar. Steve points out how the Sierra Club has lost its mission from an outdoor recreation and environmental steward organization, to its current direction as more of a social justice organization. He chronicles the disruption caused by the population issue. You all know the science supporting the view that our population cannot continue to grow at its current rate without serious consequences. No race or immigrant group is to be blamed. However, as Steve pointed out, discussions concerning population do distract from the mission of the ASES and could cause strife within the organization. I would agree to get back on track and stick with discussing your primary mission of solar energy. I will not bring up the population issue again with any ASES discussions.
    PS: If you can find it, on New Years Day, the program 60 Minutes had a segment entitled The Vanishing Wild. I'd recommend it if you have not seen it. 







  • 15.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    ASES Award Winner
    Posted 01-03-2023 12:34 PM
    Thanks for the insight, Dr Serene

    And I do not in any way diminish the need for addressing the global population
    issue and carrying capacity of the planet's ecosystems.

    Just that ASES is not best suited for that, and groups like the World Resource 
    Institute (WRI), The United Nationa (MAHB) etc are active in the dialogue,
    international planning, and cooperation.

    https://mahb.stanford.edu/library-item/growing-global-overpopulation-migration-destabilizing-world/#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20United%20Nations%2C%20our%20population%20is,is%20the%20maximum%20carrying%20capacity%20of%20the%20earth.

    Best regards, Scott
     
    Scott Sklar 
    Adjunct Professor & Sustainable Energy Director
    Environment & Energy Management Institute (EEMI)
           and Director, GWU Solar Institute
    The George Washington University (GWU)
    Personal email: solarsklar@aol.com Ph 703-522-3049





  • 16.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    Posted 01-03-2023 11:19 AM
    I am an environmentalist first, a Professional Engineer focused on energy conservation and was the CEO of a company that had had a business unit that installed a variety of solar systems including PVs, SHW and SHA systems. The world population and the petroleum economy can't be ignored by our group.  I've been a member of ASES for decades, not continuously since the 70s, but more often than not, as time and cashflow allowed.  I also belong to many other environmental and ASHRAE/AEE type organizations to stay current with issues and technology. 
    Population, energy consumption and global climate change are all related and solar energy is free energy which is needed, to reduce other more polluting energy inputs.  Most of the planet's population growth has come from tropical regions with great solar resources which also tend to be areas with poor economic situations and less educational opportunities.  Better educated women tend to have fewer children.  ASES could help promote the economies and education provided in these critical areas.  I'd hate to see this discussion become off-limits to this group.

    ------------------------------
    Michael Mayhew
    President, Sr. Energy Engineer
    Heliotropic Technologies
    ------------------------------



  • 17.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    Posted 12-30-2022 08:45 AM
    I attended a lecture by Jonathan Payne a year or so ago. Dr Payne is a well known professor at Stanford whose research emphasis is extinction. He has published extensively on the 6th Extinction or Anthropocene Extinction. When asked what is the major cause today of species decline/endangerment, he responded “loss of habitat.” When asked what is the major cause of habitat loss, climate change or human encroachment, he responded “overwhelming it is human encroachment.” It is my understanding the biggest driver of human encroachment and habitat loss is agriculture. These 8 billion people need to eat. I don’t have a neat solution to this problem, but as we are on the path of a projected 10 billion world population, we better find one.

    Sent from my iPhone




  • 18.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    Silver
    Contributor
    Posted 01-01-2023 05:57 PM
    Edited by william fitch 01-02-2023 01:05 PM
    Hi and happy new year: I can see that while I was on my 11 day vacation, some people have been busy. After walking in the door about an hour ago, I thought I would take a look out here. This seems to be the thread of popularity other than food. 

    Let's see. All systems have limits. They are a function of the elements in the system and the quantitative nature of reality. I use the word quantitative here, not as relating to math as such, but simply as what we perceive as more or less to our senses. 
    Human population has a limit on this planet because this is the only planet we can live on at this point in time, as we are today biologically, and most likely very, very far in the future. And I don't mean "live" in some narrowly defined and chronological limited sense (A hut or even Elonville on Mars), but the LONG HAUL with quality. I am not going to go down the extraterrestrial direction any further because this thread is not about that as such. 

    SO yes here on Earth there is a limit to population . Using what might be an agreement to what the "quality of life" baseline might be, current estimates put a sustainable way of lasting life at around 5 Billion people. SO assuming that number as valid for the purposes of this discussion, we have already blown by that by 3 Billion. 

    Nature has for millions of years found a way to control population "overflows" by any given species by killing off the excess by one means or another. Predator's I believe have been a popular choice regarding all other life forms. Some would argue that man has none. I would disagree. Man is, in all ways his own predator. We kill for wealth and power, both constructs have no tangible reality. SO we are more than happy to sacrifice all that we know to be actually real, for something that has no tangible reality. I think that qualifies us as the perfect unsustainable species. Here I use the word unsustainable, not as Energy dirty or equivalent noun, but merely as self ending. 

    I don't want to run long because I am still "unwinding" from Disney, but all the "problems" you list as basically mans "ills" (100 fold) are really not population related. All people who are alive today were not alive 130 years ago. I apologize if somebody out there is 131 or greater. These problems existed not long after man became agrarian (Territorial, 10 millennium ago) and created currency about 4 millennium ago, give or take.

    Our problems at this point (Lack of Tech and means no longer the issue) are because we chose to run our entire world on the currency construct. No one is willing to look at that of course because all the King Midas's (Double digit millionaires and up) will never, ever complain their seat of Gold is too hard and uncomfortable. And since they by definition are the wealth and power construct holders and rule society, as long as currency exists (Man does not move beyond currency for a cooperative society) man will eventually fail. Currency FORCES competition not cooperation, even when it is in our own best interest as a species. It holds us back.

    SO, is over population a problem? Sure. But is it the primary cause of our current Earth ills? No. Will doing a "Thanos snap" solve our Human ills? No. Its not that simple or easy.

    As an additional thought, if man had solved our Earth problems by not continuing the currency addiction, we would have already proactively prevented the over-population reality, by not having it in the first place through cooperation, logic and reason.

    ------------------------------
    william fitch
    Owner
    www.WeAreSolar.com
    ------------------------------



  • 19.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    ASES Life Member
    Posted 01-03-2023 09:25 AM
    Thanks, James and Steve, for the history of ZPG and Sierra Club. It is disturbing that truth became unsayable.

    Can't remember who at this point, but a population scientist said many years ago that the Earth could support 10B people in relative comfort or 15B in squalor. I think both numbers are human-centric, i.e., they do not consider other species. It also leaves out people for whom "happiness is a blank spot on the map."

    ------------------------------
    M Keith Sharp
    Emeritus Professor
    Louisville KY
    ------------------------------



  • 20.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    Silver
    Contributor
    Posted 01-03-2023 08:02 PM
    Edited by william fitch 01-03-2023 08:03 PM
    Pick your number... right...

    In a way, picking a fight with over population is a reverse logic in the negative, resulting in a similar "effect" as hitching our RE future on production level Fusion. Neither are achievable now or perhaps ever, and only dilute the already dilute fight against the FFI and all upstream and downstream interests. 

    Do not forget that this threads original post started with, "I will add this bit of serious trivia regarding our global condition for your consideration and year-end reflections." Being blunt, I put this in the same category as 'news years eve' resolutions for loosing weight. Great to talk about and speculate with, but have a chance in hell of working out in the positive way for any real significant percentage of the population.

    Stay focused on Solar. The solution comes up every morning.

    "“Keep still, Sancho, my friend,” responded don Quixote. “Things associated with war, more than others, are subject to continual change. Moreover, I believe—and it’s true—that the sage Frestón—he who robbed me of my library—has changed these giants into windmills to take away the glory of my having conquered them, such is the enmity he bears me. But in the long run, his evil cunning will have little power over the might of my sword.”"

    ------------------------------
    william fitch
    Owner
    www.WeAreSolar.com
    ------------------------------



  • 21.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    ASES Life Member
    Posted 01-11-2023 07:09 PM
    Fitch,
         I find your comparison between a population solution and fusion interesting. Both are extremely difficult, granted. The difference I see is that population stabilization is required for sustainability, but we may be able to get by without fusion energy. Without population limits, we will reach a threshold at which food production is less than what is needed to survive. People will starve and die. It could be argued that this is already occurring due to uneven distribution of riches, particularly food.
         Fusion might fill in clean, dispatchable power when the sun is not shining and the wind is not blowing, but there are other possibilities to serve this need. Grid-scale battery storage is still a challenge, and thermal and thermochemical storage still need lots of development.

    Best,
    Keith

    ------------------------------
    M Keith Sharp
    Emeritus Professor
    Louisville KY
    ------------------------------



  • 22.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    Silver
    Contributor
    Posted 01-11-2023 10:20 PM
    As I have mentioned before in other threads as well, over pop is really not the main problem with man. Our chosen currency construct has created a societal structure that is not sustainable for man, probably well before 2100. Man to survive needs lateral structures being need based and far more equal. Not totally equal, but more equal. Currency forces a hierarchical structure and all the associated ills of man. This is why we as man have really not progressed for thousands of years. Longevity sure. Technology sure. Morally and ethically, not really. A quick look around the globe illustrates that. But few recognize it as the problem. People ask than what is your solution. The biggest task to the solution is to get EVERYONE to recognize what the problem is. Then processes can advance to correct this imbalance, IE CW. (Concentrated Wealth) and moving beyond currency. Likely hood, next to zero before collapse.

    ------------------------------
    william fitch
    Owner
    www.WeAreSolar.com
    ------------------------------



  • 23.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    Posted 01-12-2023 08:25 AM
    I'd argue that currency (money) isn't itself the problem, but rather the fact that once accumulated beyond a certain level, it gives those people power over everyone else with the usual result of a very unequal distribution of wealth.  Still, I'm not convinced that unequal wealth stops us from reaching sustainability, although it does seem to get in the way.  However that only seems to be because those with wealth seem to value that wealth far beyond any question of sustainability.   In fact, it seems to me that if there is any non-technical barrier to sustainability, it's the emotional need for wealth.  The whole "solar doesn't pay" argument is really just an emotional reaction saying that the speaker doesn't value sustainability--at least not more than whatever else they'd do with the money they have. No one seems to bat an eyelash when they drive off the new car lot and the value of that car goes down by thousands...   My point being that even with equitable distribution of wealth, it's not clear that people will choose sustainable options.  The issue is more cultural/emotional.   The thing that brings this group together is our the high value we place on sustainability.  Sadly this does not seem to be a huge priority for most people, and in my view this is the main problem.

    I can't say for sure that population is a problem, but the math doesn't appear very good to me.  We're currently nowhere close to reaching sustainability for the 8B of us.  Everything I read about scaling up is daunting and it seems like even with government support, we in the US are unlikely to reach sustainability anytime soon... and that doesn't even consider the needs of the 4B+ people who currently consume far less that the US average.  We in the developed world could certainly cut our consumption and not suffer in the least, but even if we all did,  the resource demand to supply that level of consumption to 8B+ people seems nearly impossible to achieve.   And not only that, but it seems we're already reaching a point where we lack resilience in that we seem to be pushing the limits of resource extraction... forestry, fisheries, fresh water etc.   Maybe technology will fix it.  Seems like a bad bet to me.

    Maybe I'm too pessimistic because I happen to be one of those people that really values those blank spots on the map.

    ------------------------------
    Bob Scheulen
    ------------------------------



  • 24.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    Silver
    Contributor
    Posted 01-12-2023 11:20 AM
    Edited by william fitch 01-12-2023 11:50 AM
    "In fact, it seems to me that if there is any non-technical barrier to sustainability, it's the emotional need for wealth.  "
    Let's see. Everything in our world has a price tag. Food, housing, healthcare, social recognition and appeal, time, land, water, literally everything that a human on this planet comes into contact with. When you have financial freedom (Not my word creation) you can smash you car, have your house burn down, need your appendix out, on and on. Just snap your fingers and voila. No problem. See you next week on our monthly vacation. If not, and you have some money but no health insurance, a slip on ice can wipeout everything you have and put your new place of residence into a shopping cart, for REAL!! To say that the real world allure for wealth is emotional, not hard core substantive, is like saying sexual intercourse has nothing to do with over population. Its insulting frankly. 

    "I'd argue that currency (money) isn't itself the problem, but rather the fact that once accumulated beyond a certain level, it ....."
    Yes, but that is exactly the point. Currency is inherently hierarchical since coupled to math (Unless you know of a denomination less currency) and by nature demands more, and more, and more. Once you have 10 million in cash assets, at a 5% yearly guaranteed rate (Easy at that investment level), that is a yearly income of $500,000 dollars that you simply acquire curtesy of math. You acquire it. You don't EARN it. You don't have to work for it. Be thrifty and you get wealthier and wealthier every day. 
    So my point is that you cannot put the wealth inequality genie back in the bottle, because it is the bottle.
    And as a final, given such a structural dynamic, the purpose of life simply becomes more money, more wealth above all else. Even all that is ACTUALLY real.

    As a separate thought for you. Too many people on the planet. Not sustainable. Human labor ending being replaced with tech. People who are rich (The few) and people who are not rich (The masses). The masses keep using up valuable resources the rich need. SO if you hold all the strings, what do you think you should do with all the extra unneeded people who won't stop procreating?
    What was it the Alien said through the glass wall to the US president in the movie "Independence Day", when asked, "What is it you want us to do?"

    Now compared to that, you can feel you are optimistic.

    ------------------------------
    william fitch
    Owner
    www.WeAreSolar.com
    ------------------------------



  • 25.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    ASES Life Member
    Posted 01-12-2023 01:04 PM
    From a population dynamics standpoint, homo sapiens is not much different than any other species. The Isle Royale deer and moose do not use currency, nor do bluegills in a farm pond or trout in an alpine lake. Yet all are subject to the limits of their environments. The human overpopulation problem is more fundamental than the prevailing economic system. Communism, or some other form of equitable distribution of wealth, does not make more corn grow in Iowa.

    Experts expect America's production of corn, wheat and soybeans to start falling off a cliff in the 2030's with rising temperatures. Genetics and more favorable conditions in northern states has kept production more or less constant in the last few decades. But the reductions in productivity already experienced in southern states will get worse and will travel north as temperatures rise. Crop genetics to deal with hotter growing conditions appears to have limits.

    ------------------------------
    M Keith Sharp
    Emeritus Professor
    Louisville KY
    ------------------------------



  • 26.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    Silver
    Contributor
    Posted 01-12-2023 01:35 PM
    "The Isle Royale deer and moose do not use currency, nor do bluegills in a farm pond or trout in an alpine lake"
    Yes, but they don't burn fossil fuels do they. So apparently we are not quite Lions, Tigers and Bears in 
    totality...

    ------------------------------
    william fitch
    Owner
    www.WeAreSolar.com
    ------------------------------



  • 27.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    ASES Life Member
    Posted 01-13-2023 01:05 PM
    Sure, there are a number of differences, but one thing is not different. The human population cannot be larger than the capacity of the Earth to produce enough food, just like other species in their limited environment. Money, fossil fuels and everything else is secondary to that immutable principle. We could abolish currency and completely replace fossil fuels, and still starve if there are too many people.

    ------------------------------
    M Keith Sharp
    Emeritus Professor
    Louisville KY
    ------------------------------



  • 28.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    Silver
    Contributor
    Posted 01-13-2023 02:53 PM
    "The human population cannot be larger than the capacity of the Earth to produce enough food, just like other species in their limited environment."

    Totally agree! Completely. (Caveat; The amount of food we can produce is largely depended on tech advance) 

    "We could abolish currency and completely replace fossil fuels, and still starve if there are too many people."

    Now this is the interesting one. I could go long on this but I am not going to (Thank god).
    Instead I will go on the short side.
    Currency STOPS us from being able to proactively create processes to be able to stop this from happening in the first place. Also, if currency had been abandoned sooner, global warming would not be a thing along with War as we know it, etc., etc..

    I know this end I suggest is incredibly scary, and I don't mean that in a Hollywood way. Its like a bad relationship. A male and female ( I "hate" that it is necessary to delineate that) are in a bad relationship. But do either leave and call its quits? Allot of the time, no. Why? Because humans do not take kindly to giving up "anything" for an unknown. In short, the most probable end for that example is when one or the other finds a person who makes them happier than the one they are with. Only then, does the break occur from the unhappy status quo. Unfortunately in the case of currency abandonment, there is not exactly a test case person. You must jump in the deep end and learn to swim. 


    ------------------------------
    william fitch
    Owner
    www.WeAreSolar.com
    ------------------------------



  • 29.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    Posted 01-14-2023 11:39 AM
    Mr Fitch, I admire your detailed knowledge of solar components and systems, but sometimes you get on a thread that I just cannot follow the logic. This "currency" thread happens to be one of them. Currency is just a means for purchasing goods and services, and providing an accounting system. Every country in the world, representing every type of economy, has a currency.
    Examples: Capitalist, market economy - US Dollar; Communist - Russia Ruble, China Yuan; Socialist - Nicaragua Cordoba, Marxist - Cuba Peso; Theocracy - Iran Rial; Semi Feudal - Saudi Arabia Ryal; etc. Even bizarre North Korea which has a strict Centrally Planned Economy has the North Korean Won. Why? Well right now the currency system is the only economic alternative to the barter system, which the world abandoned thousands of years ago.  I think you are trying to make points about wealth inequality, excessive consumption, concentration of power, decision making, how to support population growth,  etc. and how this effects the solar market. I just fail to see the connection to "currency".

    ------------------------------
    Thomas Grant
    Director
    XanaduEnergy
    Fairway KS
    ------------------------------



  • 30.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    Silver
    Contributor
    Posted 01-14-2023 02:52 PM
    "Currency is just a means for purchasing goods and services, and providing an accounting system."
    Sounds like a typical line pulled from a Milton Friedman book or one of his course's syllabus that I have heard, well, forever. But it has been around for 4 thousand years, give or take (Not Milton I mean, currency).
    Perhaps some  analogy's. 
    "Human beings are nothing more than a big pile of cells (60% water) that happen to have the capability of moving around and make sounds."
    I mean to be fair, we are really just that, and that is a true 
    statement that you really can not argue with. 
    Now given that factual description, if the word "oversimplification" did not exist in the human make sounds dictionary, I think some human upon reading my definition would say, "I am creating a word called oversimplification which will mean the following, "the action of describing or explaining something in such a simple way that it is no longer correct or true"".
    The Milton Freidman thinking line is guilty of such a condition. However, the real error is in the approach to use the definition of "something" as an answer for its effect on humanity, as some kind of end all in causality and justifications.
    In a way, it is a misdirection or what I like to call smoke and mirrors.
    Understanding the atom and being able to control it to an extent, is nothing more than controlling in part a bunch of Protons, Neutrons and Electrons. Harmless enough. It is simply understanding and quantifying a bunch of matter.
    However put hose "constructs" and understandings in the hands of man and he can wipe out all life on the surface of this planet. SO, one might ask, is it really the "definition" of a thing that needs to be addressed to solve a problem(s) or is it its impacts on the human environment (And humans) that is where the rubber meets the road?
    I believe it is. And there are two main descriptors:
    Choice impacts and inherent impacts.
    A choice impact is something that is a "clean" open choice without any core motivations.
    If you throw water on "yourself" (Clothed or not) "you" will get wet. Simple.
    Now do you have to do that inherently without escape? No. But if you do you will get wet.
    It is a choice if you want to get wet.
    Inherent impacts are ones that are basically inescapable. 
    Lets try eating. Do you have to put food in your mouth. Well, sort of no. No one is forcing you to do that. You have a choice. You have a choice of whether and what you choose to put in your mouth. I mean its not like it is in any way Foods fault that you eat./s. Its what you choose to do with it. Right? Well, not really. Because if you do not eat, you will die, which last time I checked was kind of a big deal. Eating is an inherent impact of having food, because organic life forms are coupled by a necessity to consume matter to create energy. So if you have food you will eat it. There is no escape basically.
    Currency has the same inherent impact when present for man. Like food forces man to continue to live as a result of its necessary consumption, currency forces man into a hierarchical structure because it is based on math (No denomination less currency). And it is that forcing that causes man to remain true to his lower brain functions. In my TFTD #126 (probably 15 years ago or so), I expressed it like this:

    #126.     "I am not saying money is the "root of all evil" here. I am saying that currency is the perfect choice catalyst for the human animal instinct to reveal its worst sides, competition, selfishness, greed, in lieu of cooperation, compassion and equivalency."

    Any political structure from Gilded Age Capitalism to practiced Communism all have a hierarchical structure. The ruling party is never poor. There is no "poor" Royal or power/money "poor" bourgeoisie. And as far a Marxism goes, it is theoretical and never has solidified into a real social structure, for the very reasons I am trying to point out here. Marxism is trying to be water that is not wet. But because it still has to play ball in currencies open stadium, it gets rained on..

    SO, the only way for man to move beyond his historical ills, and to embrace his higher brain functions (TFTD#126), is to move beyond the currency construct. A start would be to stop playing in the weeds of definitions as a prophetic end all.

    Since I have bestowed so much optimism to this thread, here is a short pros I wrote back in 1996, at 6PM while I was running 4 miles. I think you will find it an emotional shift. It is pure creative writing which I love the most, and has absolutely no direct connection to the aforementioned topics.

    The Way We Are

    Standing in the mass of the ages. We choose this often
     over our own solitude, even though much of the pain we
     feel comes from our choice.
    We crave, desire even bleed not to be lonely. What
    drives this mad compulsion? Is it masochism or the
    inherited wants of the forgotten.
    Beauty IS in the eye of the beholder, but it does
    subscribe to some standard definitions. Many languages
    does it speak and many lies does it tell. But perhaps
    only time and understanding can transport to us the
    truth and happiness we all so need and desire.

    11/26/1997 6pm WHFIII










    ​​​​​


    ------------------------------
    william fitch
    Owner
    www.WeAreSolar.com
    ------------------------------



  • 31.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    Posted 01-15-2023 10:18 AM
    There are a lot of economists who don't agree with the Milton Friedman school of thought.  There are plenty of people who think the whole rational actor/selfish best interest thing is largely bunk--my take is that the whole Milton Friedman school of economists all failed psychology.  The main challenge of economics is that it's intertwined with psychology--you're trying to make statements about how people will behave.  The behavioral economists have a much better take.

    Money serves a lot of useful purposes--lots of things barter can't do.  It's unfortunate that people use it for purposes other than what it's good for, but that's a separate problem.  Otherwise you're just throwing out the baby with the bathwater.

    BTW, my comment about people's purchasing decisions admittedly only applies to the 70% (or so) of the population that has some choice in their spending habits.  My experience working in retail was that much of those decisions are emotional, and that when people are making them, sustainability is almost never on the top of their decision tree. The base problem is cultural and emotional.

    FYI, I'm not defending capitalism here. There are other ways to run a society that don't center on money.  Our society certainly has it's fair share of ills, but the existence of money isn't one of them.   If you've ever read Yuval Harari's Sapiens, he lists money as one of human's greatest inventions...and he's a historian, not an economist.  The problem with money isn't money itself, but that too many people covet it under the false notion that having money will make them happy.

    Given the fairly high capital investment needed to make PV panels, I don't see how we could even have them without money.  The manufacturer needs the stored value, and the highly skilled people that design such things need a huge web of interconnected people to allow them to specialize in something so narrow.  Pre around 1850 most humans lived with little to no money, but I don't think there are many people who want to go back to that life.  I'm fairly fond of my fiberglass frame low-e glass windows etc.

    ------------------------------
    Bob Scheulen
    ------------------------------



  • 32.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    Silver
    Contributor
    Posted 01-15-2023 10:58 AM
    Hi Bob: I want to thank YOU AND EVERYONE ELSE in this divergent offshoot from Dennis's original post. Its funny, we only heard from him once! Maybe he decided to sit back with a bucket of popcorn! ..lol...

    I think we have reached the Hammer sees nail not screw point of communication. Its been fun and I hope SOMEBODY out there liked the pros! It is one of my favorites.

    I am off to see Avatar, water world or save the whales. We saw it down in Disney Springs at an AMC laser projector Real 3D Dolby Atmos I-max screen with Luxury Loungers theater. I have seen allot of film and 3d, but I have to say that was the best 3D I have EVER seen, an incredible sound. I would guess it was the laser projection, since it was the only movie have have seen with it. It was flawless. Problem is my wife fell asleep with the midnight show and missed 80% of the film. SO we are going for Cinemark Real 3D XD... this time Matinee.

    Everyone enjoy the rest of the weekend!!!
    Let the sun shine...

    As a last thought (rhetorical food), why is it that when you suggest currency abandonment, people drop back to what was (Barter), rather than looking forward to what has not?


    ------------------------------
    william fitch
    Owner
    www.WeAreSolar.com
    ------------------------------



  • 33.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    Silver
    Contributor
    Posted 01-04-2023 10:14 PM
    Edited by Kat Friedrich 01-04-2023 10:40 PM

    I have observed that it is common for ASES members to see our work in the context of the international, worldwide community. We talk about questions related to social and economic equity regularly in our work here at ASES. 

    We have an article in our December issue of Solar Today that talks about some of the issues related to the UN Sustainable Development Goals that are directly relevant to this conversation. 

    As an organization, ASES prioritizes taking an inclusive approach in which we recognize that energy issues affect people from all walks of life.

    In our September issue of Solar Today, we talked about some solar power considerations faced by developing nations, including communities in the Caribbean. One of our articles focused on solar cooking in Kenya.

    We value and appreciate the participation of people from the global South in ASES. Some people from Africa are collaborating with the ASES office this year. 

    @Ella Nielsen, would you like to add anything?

    ------------------------------
    Kat Friedrich
    Editor in Chief
    ASES
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  • 34.  RE: World Population - 8 Billion Cannot be Ignored

    Silver
    Contributor
    Posted 01-08-2023 09:02 PM
    Hi all,

    I appreciate all of your points and perspectives, and thank you for the background on the Sierra Club! 

    To add to what Kat mentioned above, the ASES Strategic Directions Committee has been focused on developing strategic metrics (KPI) for organizational sustainability and ensuring the detailed metrics follow best practices and thinking. This includes how ASES' work aligns with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). To emphasize what was mentioned earlier in this discussion thread about the correlation between educated women having fewer to no offspring - as many know, the UN SDGs has a goal solely for achieving gender equality and empowering all women and girls (Goal #5). ASES acknowledges that we can't get to 100% renewable energy without doing it equitably and sustainably. As Kat mentioned, our work consists of taking an inclusive approach, as we know that energy issues affect people from anywhere and everywhere.




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    Ella Nielsen
    Membership & Engagement Manager
    American Solar Energy Society
    Boulder CO
    ------------------------------